Yankees’ Playoff Odds: A Tale of Three Different Outlooks

Baseball Reference Predicts Yankees to End Season in Last Place

Baseball Reference is not optimistic about the Yankees’ chances to make it to the playoffs in 2024. Their projections predict that the Yankees will have a mere 2.7 percent chance of making it and winning only 71.6 games, which is worse than both the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. However, Fangraphs has a different outlook on things, projecting the Yankees to win 88 games, which is still fourth-best in all of baseball.

On the other hand, BetRivers Sportsbook believes that the Yankees are capable of doing much better than what Baseball Reference predicts. They give the Yankees a 77.01 percent chance of making it to the playoffs and even project them to win an impressive 91.5 games, with odds of +650 for having the most wins in baseball. This is significantly different from Baseball Reference’s projections based on their Simple Rating System which doesn’t take into account injuries or player variance but focuses solely on run differentials and changes in schedule difficulty.

Despite these pessimistic predictions, there are reasons for optimism about the Yankees’ upcoming season. The team made significant offseason acquisitions including Juan Soto, who should greatly improve their offense. Additionally, if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, he could turn things around for his team after their disappointing performance last year

Baseball Reference is not optimistic about the Yankees’ chances to make it to the playoffs in 2024. Their projections predict that the Yankees will have a mere 2.7 percent chance of making it and winning only 71.6 games, which is worse than both the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. However, Fangraphs has a different outlook on…

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